For the Buccaneers, the combination of Cameron Brate and O.J. At their salaries, they will need to catch multiple touchdowns in order to return value. In the Patriots’ low-volume passing attack, both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are cannibalizing each other’s workload, with neither playing on more than 75% of snaps (Smith is below 60%), and neither earning more than a 10% target share. If Gronkowski sits, then the touchdown probability for any tight end to score in this game plummets.
On the Tampa Bay side, Antonio Brown grades out as the best value, but still has a lower probability of hitting his ceiling compared to the premium-salary receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, especially after returning to the team late in the week due to his stay on the COVID-19 list. Meyers and teammate Nelson Agholor are the only New England wideouts playing on 80% or more of the team’s snaps. The Patriots’ Jakobi Meyers is the highest-value wideout on FanDuel, which makes sense, considering he has earned nearly 25% of his team’s targets and nearly 30% of his team’s air yards. With plenty of points and plenty of passes expected in this contest (at least if the game is to remain competitive), both teams have mid-tier salary wide receivers who are popping in Awesemo’s value metric. No running back other than Harris has any guaranteed workload. The Awesemo projections currently think Bolden has the best value play, especially on DraftKings where his salary of $600 helps unlock a roster of otherwise premium players, but his floor is incredibly low as well. We could even see a dreaded four-way split in this backfield. Taylor or preseason darling Rhamondre Stevenson. But this week, it is very likely the Patriots intend to utilize scat-back J.J. Last week, special teams ace Brandon Bolden saw a massive increase in opportunity share, earning a season-high amount of rushes and routes run. With James White (hip) on injured reserve and out for the remainder of the year, the New England backfield is in a state of flux behind primary rusher Damien Harris. Fournette has the highest value ranking of any player on FanDuel, but Jones ranks top-10 in that metric as well. With Giovani Bernard (knee) out for this week, and Rob Gronkowski listed as doubtful, there should be an increase in playing time for both primary backs, and a likely increase of short-area targets as well. While the Buccaneers have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL, choosing to throw near the goal line more than any other team, the Buccaneers running backs still have extremely high ceilings in this game, especially if one of Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones were to begin to command a 65%-plus opportunity share. Brady currently ranks second or better in the NFL in pass attempts, air yards, red zone attempts, passing yards and passing touchdowns. There is no requirement to play in the Captain spot, but stick Brady in cash game lineup and simply figure out the rest. Brady has the highest-projected score of any player on the slate and should not be avoided despite being a near-lock to be the most popular player on the slate. Even against a middling Tampa Bay defense, using the Patriots are massive home underdogs, and should be used sparingly in showdown lineups compared to the high-octane offense of Brady’s Buccaneers.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball all season and are coming off a Week 3 defeat where they were thoroughly outplayed in all phases of the game, eventually losing to New Orleans 28 to 13. Tampa Bay was so concerned about the state of their secondary after the Week 3 beatdown that they signed former pro-bowler Richard Sherman to a one-year deal in an attempt to solidify a struggling defensive unit. The Buccaneers are also coming off their first loss of the season, a stinging 10-point defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Rams, whose offense completely overpowered the Buccaneers’ defense, while Brady was unable to keep pace. In one of the most talked-about matchups of the season, Tom Brady heads back to Foxborough in the first game of his career where he will have to face coach Bill Belichick as an opponent after Brady’s departure following the 2019 season.
Week 4 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks
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